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Credit profile

Federal Government of Nigeria

Proshare Rating
Caa1.ng
1Y PD
4.80%
LGD
35%
Spread
0 bps
Outstanding
₦142.00T
Watchlist
Positive

Thesis

Reform momentum (FX unification, subsidy removal, tax overhaul) is restoring policy credibility; near-term debt service burden remains the binding constraint.

Strengths
  • Reform credibility recovering
  • FX market unification
  • Rising external reserves
  • Robust diaspora flows
Risks
  • Debt service > 70% of revenue
  • Oil production variability
  • Security spending pressure
  • Election-cycle fiscal slippage

External ratings

  • Moody'sCaa1Positive
  • S&PB-Stable
  • FitchB-Stable
Last reviewed 2026-05-22