Nigeria
Macroeconomic Intelligence
Inflation, growth, monetary policy, FX, oil, fiscal & external sector — consolidated with sector-impact mapping.
Headline CPI
21.18%
-1.42%y/y
Real GDP
3.46%
+0.32%y/y
MPR
22.50%
0.00%CBN policy rate
91D T-Bill
16.85%
-0.25%Stop rate
NGN/USD
₦1480
-0.45%NAFEM
Brent
$78.40
+0.82%$/bbl
Reserves
$41.8bn
+1.85%External
FGN 10Y
18.62%
-0.18%Sovereign yield
AI Macro Summary
Synthesized from CBN, NBS, DMO, OPEC, FMDQ & FGN datasets · refreshed 6/17/2026
model: proshare-macro-v2
- Disinflation is intact: headline CPI at 21.18% (-1.42pp m/m, -10.6pp y/y). The base effect from Q2 2025 supports a sub-20% print by July.
- CBN held MPR at 22.50% with an asymmetric corridor — real policy rate has turned positive, anchoring portfolio inflows. 91-day T-bill stop rate eased to 16.85% as system liquidity improved.
- External buffers continue to rebuild: reserves at $41.8bn (+17.2% y/y) against NAFEM rate of ₦1480. The premium to parallel has compressed below 1%.
- Brent at $78.40/bbl with Nigeria production at 1.48 mb/d — fiscal breakeven coverage remains comfortable. Watch OPEC+ June 27 for production guidance.
- Bias: constructive for Tier-1 banks (rate sensitivity), upstream oil & gas (FX translation), and FGN front-end. Cautious on import-heavy FMCG and pharma until input-cost FX trend confirms.
Headline Inflation
NBS · % y/y
21.18
-1.42%y/y -10.6
Macro → Sector Impact
Directional sensitivity of each sector to the four primary macro drivers. Scale −3 (severely negative) to +3 (strongly positive).
Sector
Inflation
FX (NGN/USD)
Oil Price
Interest Rates
−1
+2
+1
+2
0
+3
+3
−1
−2
−3
−1
−2
+1
−1
−1
−2
−1
−3
0
−1
−2
−2
−2
−2
Banking — driver notes
Click a sector row to switchInflation
−1
Margin lift offset by NPL formation in retail book.
FX (NGN/USD)
+2
Revaluation gains on net long FX positions; trade-finance fees.
Oil Price
+1
Upstream loan book quality improves; deposit inflows from NNPCL.
Interest Rates
+2
Asset repricing > funding cost; NIMs expand at Tier-1s.
Macro Calendar
Upcoming Nigerian macro releases, auctions and policy events.
| Date | Event | Source | Impact | Prior | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | NBS — May CPI Release | NBS | High | 21.18% | 20.40% |
| 2026-06-17 | CBN — MPC Rate Decision | CBN | High | 22.50% | 22.50% |
| 2026-06-19 | DMO — FGN Bond Auction | DMO | Medium | 18.62% | 18.40% |
| 2026-06-21 | CBN — External Reserves Update | CBN | Medium | $41.8bn | $42.3bn |
| 2026-06-25 | NBS — Q1 GDP (Revised) | NBS | High | 3.46% | 3.55% |
| 2026-06-27 | OPEC+ — Production Meeting | OPEC | High | 1.48 mb/d | 1.50 mb/d |
| 2026-07-02 | CBN — 91/182/364 T-Bill Auction | CBN | Medium | 16.85% | 16.60% |
| 2026-07-08 | NBS — Trade Balance Q1 | NBS | Medium | — | — |